2018年12月中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)景氣指數(shù)27.8%

2019-01-11 09:08:53 來(lái)源:中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì) 閱讀量:13912 評(píng)論

  【中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場(chǎng)行情】 中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)布的2018年12月份中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為27.8%,環(huán)比上升7.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn),同比提升0.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。從環(huán)比看,6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)中除農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼指數(shù)和人氣指數(shù)呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢(shì),其余均呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢(shì),其中經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)增幅高,為14.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。從同比看,6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)中除庫(kù)存量指數(shù)和經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)外,其余全部呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢(shì),其中效益指數(shù)降幅高,為23.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。目前,6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)均位于不景氣區(qū)間。本月起,植保機(jī)指數(shù)暫不對(duì)外發(fā)布。
  特約分析師張華光認(rèn)為:12月份,AMI雖然仍處于較低的景氣度區(qū)間,但畢竟止住了2018年下半年持續(xù)下滑的腳步,環(huán)比、同比均有所抬頭,雙雙上揚(yáng)。意味著農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)在跌入谷底后,步入恢復(fù)性增長(zhǎng)的軌道,即使這種增長(zhǎng)幅度不大,但具有重要的象征性意義。六個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)“四升兩降”,尤其是經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)的大幅度攀升,發(fā)生在人氣指數(shù)依然低迷的情勢(shì)下,說明經(jīng)理人對(duì)已經(jīng)開始的2019年農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)的感性判斷和期待,同時(shí)也受制造企業(yè)促銷政策的刺激。在六個(gè)二級(jí)指數(shù)中,除運(yùn)輸機(jī)指數(shù)挺進(jìn)景氣區(qū)間外,其它指數(shù)均處于深度不景氣區(qū)間,提示2018年12月份的農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)依然處于低迷狀態(tài)。遵循農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展規(guī)律,已經(jīng)開始的1月份,依然處于市場(chǎng)淡季,加之春節(jié)將近,我們判斷AMI依然會(huì)處于較低的景氣區(qū)間。絕大多數(shù)一、二、三級(jí)指數(shù)仍然會(huì)深陷不景氣的泥潭,不否認(rèn)個(gè)別指數(shù)逆勢(shì)增長(zhǎng),但這種增長(zhǎng)難以改變整體市場(chǎng)的基本走勢(shì)。
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