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10月份AMI指數(shù)為43.4%，“銀十”成色仍然不足

2024-11-07 09:15:13 來源：中國農(nóng)機流通協(xié)會 閱讀量：11082 評論

導讀：中國農(nóng)業(yè)機械流通協(xié)會發(fā)布的2024年10月份中國農(nóng)機市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為43.4%，環(huán)比下降4.8個百分點，同比提升3.4個百分點。

　　【農(nóng)機網(wǎng) 市場行情】中國農(nóng)業(yè)機械流通協(xié)會發(fā)布的2024年10月份中國農(nóng)機市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為43.4%，環(huán)比下降4.8個百分點，同比提升3.4個百分點。從環(huán)比看，6個一級指數(shù)中除庫存指數(shù)外全部下降，其中人氣指數(shù)降幅最大，比上月同期下滑9.7個百分點；從同比看，6個一級指數(shù)全線飄紅，其中，庫存指數(shù)以6.3個百分點創(chuàng)本月一級指數(shù)的最大增幅。在效益指數(shù)、補貼指數(shù)跌落不景氣區(qū)間后，庫存指數(shù)成為一級指數(shù)中唯一一支停留于景氣區(qū)間的“獨苗”，且連續(xù)兩個月。其它指數(shù)持續(xù)躊躇于不景氣區(qū)間。
 
　　特約分析師張華光認為：10月份是農(nóng)機市場下半年傳統(tǒng)旺季的收官之月，素有“銀十”之稱。AMI卻走出環(huán)比下行、旺季不旺令農(nóng)機人唏噓的結果。產(chǎn)需走弱，市場動力不足也成為10月份展現(xiàn)給我們的最大特點。但從同比分析，10月份的景氣度又高于過去兩年，且創(chuàng)下近三年月度景氣度最高紀錄。所以，如果拉長時間線看今年10月份，其表現(xiàn)并不意外。10月份，AMI環(huán)比下降4.8個百分點，這是自5月至10月，連續(xù)6個月停留在不景氣區(qū)間，創(chuàng)下5年來最長停留時間。
 
　　市場回落非季節(jié)因素，更多來自購買力下降帶來的需求低迷。但如果轉(zhuǎn)換時間軸看10月，今年的市場明顯好于去年同期。AMI和6個一級指數(shù)月度同比全線增長，并創(chuàng)下多年未有之紀錄。這種現(xiàn)象一方面說明去年市場更差，另一方面也詮釋了今年農(nóng)機市場的低迷特點。在多數(shù)指數(shù)環(huán)比下降的背景下，庫存指數(shù)卻以52.5%景氣度，以及環(huán)比0.6%、同比6.3%的增長，逆市飄紅，并穩(wěn)定在擴張區(qū)間，意味著下半年多數(shù)經(jīng)銷商的庫存在經(jīng)過6-8月的去庫存后，成效顯著，9月份即進入合理狀態(tài)。從10月份庫存的兩大指標看， “進貨總額”增加的采集點占比最高，達到52%，庫存合理的占比高達73%。
 
　　10月份，所監(jiān)測的5個二級指數(shù)悉數(shù)位于不景氣區(qū)間。環(huán)比“3下2上”，“3下”直接將拖拉機、耕整地、收獲機三大指數(shù)拖入不景氣區(qū)間；同比“4上1下”，同比雖增多降少，對陷于不景氣區(qū)間的指數(shù)并沒有實質(zhì)性影響，只能說明去年同期市場更差而形成的“洼地”所致。所監(jiān)測的10個三級指數(shù)同樣突出表現(xiàn)為冷熱不均。環(huán)比：“8下2上”。其中，大型拖拉機、旋耕機、免耕播種機、自走式玉米收獲機四個指數(shù)隨著環(huán)比的下跌，直接跌落至收縮區(qū)間；同比：“6升1平3降”。其中， 大中拖、旋耕機、插秧機、遙控飛行噴霧機、自走履帶式谷物聯(lián)合收割機(全喂入)等六個指數(shù)增長，免耕播種機指數(shù)持平，其它指數(shù)均出現(xiàn)不同程度的下降。
 
　　今年10月份景氣度高于過去兩年，雖然今年市場整體走勢好于去年，但11月份要超越10月的景氣度依然有難度。11月份AMI環(huán)比微降、同比增長，繼續(xù)滯留于不景氣區(qū)間的概率較大，一、二、三級指數(shù)的景氣度變化或?qū)⒉懖惑@，環(huán)比和同比仍然冷熱不均。

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