2019年我國農(nóng)機(jī)工業(yè)產(chǎn)值占總值的三成

2020-04-28 11:34:58 來源：中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械工業(yè)協(xié)會信息與會員部 閱讀量：23849 評論

　　【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場行情】 目前，我國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械擁有耕整地機(jī)械、種植施肥機(jī)械、田間管理機(jī)械、收獲機(jī)、收獲后處理機(jī)械、農(nóng)產(chǎn)品初加工機(jī)械、農(nóng)用搬運機(jī)械、排灌機(jī)械、畜牧機(jī)械、水產(chǎn)機(jī)械、農(nóng)業(yè)廢棄物利用處理設(shè)備、農(nóng)田基本建設(shè)機(jī)械、設(shè)施農(nóng)業(yè)設(shè)備和動力機(jī)械等十多個種類的幾千種產(chǎn)品，越來越多薄弱環(huán)節(jié)的裝備和技術(shù)進(jìn)入市場。
 
　　農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械是提高農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效率、實現(xiàn)資源有效利用、推動農(nóng)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展不可或缺的機(jī)械裝備，農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化對保障國家糧食安全、促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)增產(chǎn)增效、改變農(nóng)民增收方式和推動農(nóng)村發(fā)展起著非常重要的作用。
 
　　一、農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械市場
 
　　農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械作為農(nóng)作物種植及相關(guān)生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)*的機(jī)械化設(shè)備在范圍內(nèi)被廣泛應(yīng)用。地域、經(jīng)濟(jì)的差距使各國走上了不同的農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化發(fā)展道路，以美國、加拿大、澳大利亞為代表的發(fā)達(dá)國家由于幅員遼闊、人口稀少，成就了其大規(guī)模機(jī)械化之路；而日本、韓國等國由于人多地少的特點，十分重視集約化生產(chǎn)，發(fā)展了獨特的小規(guī)模精細(xì)機(jī)械化。無論采取什么樣的機(jī)械化發(fā)展道路，都可以看出，農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化發(fā)展是實現(xiàn)農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的必然之路。
 
　　圖1：2015-2022年農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械市場規(guī)模及預(yù)測(億美元)
 
 
　　資料來源：德國機(jī)械設(shè)備制造業(yè)聯(lián)合會(VDMA)，制造商組織，約翰迪爾、凱斯紐荷蘭、愛科、克拉斯、久保田年報
 
　　受經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢低迷、大宗商品價格大幅下跌、傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)機(jī)進(jìn)入下行通道等因素影響，農(nóng)機(jī)市場規(guī)模在2014-2016年間出現(xiàn)了持續(xù)下滑，期間，以約翰迪爾、凱斯紐荷蘭為代表的農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械巨頭均出現(xiàn)大幅業(yè)績下滑。在2017年，農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械市場開始呈現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇態(tài)勢，進(jìn)入2019年又出現(xiàn)小幅下滑。通過對德國機(jī)械設(shè)備制造業(yè)聯(lián)合會(VDMA)發(fā)布的相關(guān)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械歷史數(shù)據(jù)及美國迪爾公司(約翰迪爾)、美國凱斯紐荷蘭工業(yè)公司、美國愛科集團(tuán)、德國克拉斯農(nóng)機(jī)公司、日本久保田株式會社等農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械年度財報等信息綜合統(tǒng)計分析，2019年農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械市場規(guī)模約為1,303億美元，同比2018年下降0.5%，近年來農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械市場的增長動力主要來自于發(fā)展中國家和地區(qū)。
 
　　未來伴隨農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化的進(jìn)程，尤其是在以中國、印度、巴西等發(fā)展中國家農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化發(fā)展的下，未來農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械市場將整體呈波動增長態(tài)勢，預(yù)計到2022年農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械市場規(guī)模將達(dá)到1,332億美元，未來三年年均增長率約為0.7%。
 
　　二、中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械市場
 
　　我國政府高度重視農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化和農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化發(fā)展，我國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械市場經(jīng)過近十余年來的快速發(fā)展，尤其是2005-2014年的黃金十年后，已經(jīng)發(fā)展成為第一大農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械制造和使用國。
 
       圖2：近十年(2010-2019年)中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械總動力

資料來源：國家統(tǒng)計局
 
　　根據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計局統(tǒng)計，中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械總動力僅在2016年出現(xiàn)過下降，主要是因為小型農(nóng)機(jī)具保有量減少導(dǎo)致。隨即呈現(xiàn)增長態(tài)勢，2019年中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械總動力約為10.06億千瓦，同比2018年增長0.2%。根據(jù)國務(wù)院2018年12月份發(fā)布的《國務(wù)院關(guān)于加快推進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化和農(nóng)機(jī)裝備產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級的指導(dǎo)意見》，到2025年，全國農(nóng)機(jī)總動力將達(dá)到11億千瓦左右。
 
　　圖3：2015-2022年中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械市場規(guī)模及預(yù)測(億元)

資料來源：中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械工業(yè)協(xié)會及其歷年《中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械工業(yè)年鑒》
 
　　近幾年我國農(nóng)機(jī)行業(yè)整體發(fā)展有所放緩，2019年我國農(nóng)機(jī)市場中比重較高的傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)機(jī)市場拖拉機(jī)、插秧機(jī)等均出現(xiàn)不同程度的下跌，這造成整體市場規(guī)模出現(xiàn)下降。根據(jù)中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械工業(yè)協(xié)會統(tǒng)計，2019年我國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械行業(yè)1,900家左右的規(guī)模以上企業(yè)主營業(yè)務(wù)收入為2,465億元，降幅為4.4%。2019年我國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械市場規(guī)模占農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械市場規(guī)模的比重約為27.4%。
 
　　未來我國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械市場的增長將主要來自于全程、全面機(jī)械化加速發(fā)展下的新產(chǎn)品需求；傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械由中低端水平向中水平的更新?lián)Q代；短板、新興農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械(如棉花收獲機(jī)、殘膜回收機(jī)、其他經(jīng)濟(jì)作物種植收獲機(jī)械等)市場需求等。未來我國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械行業(yè)依然將保持增長，預(yù)計到2022年我國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械行業(yè)規(guī)模以上企業(yè)主營業(yè)務(wù)收入將達(dá)到2,570億元，占農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械市場規(guī)模比重將提升至28%。

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