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2024年1月份AMI指數(shù)為42.3%,全年市場(chǎng)走向需重新評(píng)估

2024-02-08 10:27:29 來(lái)源:中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì) 閱讀量:18651 評(píng)論

導(dǎo)讀:中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)布的2024年1月份中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為42.3%,環(huán)比下降1.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn),同比下降1.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

  【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場(chǎng)行情】中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)布的2024年1月份中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為42.3%,環(huán)比下降1.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn),同比下降1.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。從環(huán)比看,6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)中,除銷(xiāo)售能力指數(shù)與庫(kù)存指數(shù)有所提升外,其余指數(shù)均呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢(shì),其中效益指數(shù)降幅最大,為5.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn);從同比看,6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)中,除農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼指數(shù)和經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)下滑外,其余全部呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢(shì),其中,經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)大幅下滑27.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。本月6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)中,庫(kù)存指數(shù)進(jìn)入景氣區(qū)間,其余均在不景氣區(qū)間徘徊。
 
  特約分析師張華光認(rèn)為:2024年1月份,從AMI的走向看,兩點(diǎn)值得我們關(guān)注:一是不出預(yù)料的以42.3%的景氣度繼續(xù)深陷不景氣泥沼,位于近三年同期的歷史低點(diǎn)。二是環(huán)比、同比雙雙下滑又有點(diǎn)出乎意料,盡管環(huán)比僅小幅下降1.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn),同比也不過(guò)下降了1.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn),波動(dòng)并不算大。但作為今年開(kāi)門(mén)的首月,其指向讓我們不得不對(duì)2024年的市場(chǎng)走向進(jìn)行重新評(píng)估。
 

       1月份AMI的基本特征
 
  1月份AMI的表現(xiàn)折射出市場(chǎng)的四大變化。
 
  變化一:持續(xù)低迷,深陷歷史低位。伴隨著AMI同比、環(huán)比的雙雙下滑,其景氣度繼續(xù)徘徊于收縮區(qū)間,且位于歷史低位。主要原因:第一,季節(jié)因素。1月份正值農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)淡季,加之春節(jié)將近等,形成較強(qiáng)的向下壓力;第二,信心不足。1月份,作為先行指數(shù)的經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)環(huán)比、同比雙雙下滑。其中,同比大幅度下降27.3%,以41.3%的景氣度開(kāi)2024年之局,創(chuàng)下自指數(shù)發(fā)布以來(lái)新的歷史新點(diǎn),值得我們高度警惕;第三,動(dòng)力偏弱。從多年來(lái)指數(shù)運(yùn)行規(guī)律來(lái)看,2月份雖是傳統(tǒng)淡季,并受春節(jié)因素影響,但它也是旺季來(lái)臨之前備貨的關(guān)鍵月份。制造商為搶占市場(chǎng)渠道,通過(guò)商務(wù)年會(huì)等多種方式將促銷(xiāo)政策傳遞給經(jīng)銷(xiāo)商,從而激活制造商與經(jīng)銷(xiāo)商之間的交易,而拉升市場(chǎng)。今年卻因信心不足,這種動(dòng)力大大削弱,為即將開(kāi)始的2月份蒙上陰影;第四,補(bǔ)貼政策尚未發(fā)力。市場(chǎng)調(diào)查顯示,1月份多數(shù)區(qū)域的補(bǔ)貼政策未開(kāi)始實(shí)施。1月份補(bǔ)貼指數(shù)的表現(xiàn)——環(huán)比、同比雙雙下滑,景氣度徘徊于低位也可佐證這一結(jié)論。
 
  變化二:效益下滑,競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈。1月份,一級(jí)指數(shù)中的效益指數(shù)與銷(xiāo)售能力指數(shù)“一降一升”,烙下特有的月度特征。先看“一降”。效益指數(shù)環(huán)比下降5.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn),以36.9%的景氣度重回深度不景氣區(qū)間。說(shuō)明兩個(gè)問(wèn)題:一則在市場(chǎng)淡季的背景下,市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)十分激烈,多數(shù)經(jīng)銷(xiāo)商因讓利促銷(xiāo)而導(dǎo)致效益下滑;二則對(duì)去年12月份效益指數(shù)環(huán)比、同比較大幅度增長(zhǎng)后的回調(diào)。再看“一升”。與之相對(duì)應(yīng)的銷(xiāo)售能力指數(shù)則環(huán)比、同比均有所提升,說(shuō)明多數(shù)商家讓利促銷(xiāo)雖導(dǎo)致效益下滑,卻推動(dòng)了銷(xiāo)售業(yè)績(jī)的攀升。同時(shí)也反映了在經(jīng)歷了去年大幅度下降后,市場(chǎng)有所“升溫”。
 
  變化三:庫(kù)存指數(shù)持續(xù)走強(qiáng)。1月份,庫(kù)存指數(shù)環(huán)比提升2.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn),同比提升1.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn),實(shí)現(xiàn)了環(huán)比“兩連增”,同比“四連增”,并以50.3%的景氣度闖入景氣區(qū)間。在1月份各個(gè)指數(shù)中一枝獨(dú)秀,成為1月份所監(jiān)測(cè)的一、二級(jí)指數(shù)中唯一一支進(jìn)入景氣區(qū)間的一級(jí)指數(shù)。庫(kù)存指數(shù)反映了當(dāng)下經(jīng)銷(xiāo)企業(yè)的庫(kù)存狀況和對(duì)短期內(nèi)市場(chǎng)的基本判斷。庫(kù)存指數(shù)走強(qiáng),一方面意味著多數(shù)經(jīng)銷(xiāo)企業(yè)在市場(chǎng)充滿變數(shù)的嚴(yán)峻形勢(shì)下,更加注意對(duì)庫(kù)存的嚴(yán)格管控;另一方面也說(shuō)明雖然今年的市場(chǎng)面臨較大困難,但旺季來(lái)臨前進(jìn)行備貨還是每年必須做的“功課”。這點(diǎn)從插秧機(jī)、自走輪式谷物聯(lián)合收割機(jī)指數(shù)進(jìn)入擴(kuò)張區(qū)間,以及遙控飛行噴霧機(jī)指數(shù)環(huán)比、同比穩(wěn)健增長(zhǎng)并創(chuàng)下48.3%較高景氣度即可佐證,因?yàn)檫@些產(chǎn)品都是上半年的應(yīng)季產(chǎn)品。
 
  變化四:多數(shù)細(xì)分領(lǐng)域環(huán)比下滑,同比增長(zhǎng)。1月份,二級(jí)指數(shù)即各個(gè)細(xì)分市場(chǎng)冷熱不均,但多數(shù)市場(chǎng)環(huán)比下滑,同比增長(zhǎng)。從所監(jiān)測(cè)的5個(gè)二級(jí)指數(shù)看,拖拉機(jī)、田間管理機(jī)械、收獲機(jī)械三大指數(shù)環(huán)比下滑,但下滑幅度都不大,下降最多的是田間管理機(jī)械指數(shù),降幅3.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。從同比看,拖拉機(jī)、耕整地機(jī)械、種植機(jī)械和田間管理機(jī)械指數(shù)同比則出現(xiàn)不同程度的上升,其中種植機(jī)械指數(shù)同比上升幅度超過(guò)兩位數(shù)。多數(shù)市場(chǎng)環(huán)比下滑,意味著市場(chǎng)動(dòng)力偏弱,淡季背景下,市場(chǎng)依然艱難;同比上升說(shuō)明今年市場(chǎng)好于去年同期,凸顯復(fù)蘇跡象。
 
  從三級(jí)指數(shù)解析細(xì)分市場(chǎng)
 
  1月份所監(jiān)測(cè)的10個(gè)三級(jí)指數(shù)的環(huán)比呈現(xiàn)“6增4降”的特點(diǎn)。作為應(yīng)季產(chǎn)品的免耕播種機(jī)和插秧機(jī)指數(shù),隨著春耕、春播腳步的日益逼近,開(kāi)啟了旺季模式,表現(xiàn)搶眼。尤其是插秧機(jī)指數(shù),環(huán)比、同比大幅度攀升,并以54.4%的較高景氣度進(jìn)入景氣區(qū)間,成為1月份AMI中的一道靚麗風(fēng)景線。免耕播種機(jī)指數(shù)環(huán)比、同比也有所提升,環(huán)比提升3.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn),同比提升4.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn),雖然沒(méi)有進(jìn)入景氣區(qū)間,但上升勢(shì)頭較猛。
 
  大中型拖拉機(jī)市場(chǎng):1月份,大中型拖拉機(jī)市場(chǎng)依然位于不景氣區(qū)間。其中,大型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)環(huán)比下滑3.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn),同比提升3.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn),景氣度僅維持在38.3%,處于深度不景氣區(qū)間。主要是季節(jié)因素,春耕、春播主要以中型拖拉機(jī)為主力。1月份拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)的表現(xiàn)折射出如下信息:第一,1月份,大型拖拉機(jī)市場(chǎng)環(huán)比下降意味著市場(chǎng)仍處于“休眠”狀態(tài),且動(dòng)力不足,加之大型拖拉機(jī)市場(chǎng)的主戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)在下半年;第二,同比增長(zhǎng)則意味著今年的拖拉機(jī)市場(chǎng)處于緩慢的復(fù)蘇中;第三,中型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)環(huán)比、同比均出現(xiàn)不同程度的增長(zhǎng),突出反應(yīng)了季節(jié)因素對(duì)拖拉機(jī)市場(chǎng)的較大影響;第四,市場(chǎng)銷(xiāo)售主要在經(jīng)銷(xiāo)商與制造商之間展開(kāi),并未進(jìn)入終端,今年拖拉機(jī)市場(chǎng)的真實(shí)表現(xiàn)尚待進(jìn)一步觀察。
 
  耕整地機(jī)械市場(chǎng):1月份,耕整地機(jī)械市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)波瀾不驚。雖然環(huán)比、同比有所提升,但增幅并不顯著。環(huán)比提升1.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn),同比提升1.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn),以42.0%的景氣度維持在不景氣區(qū)間。與之對(duì)應(yīng)的三級(jí)指數(shù),旋耕機(jī)和深松機(jī)指數(shù)的表現(xiàn)南轅北轍,旋耕機(jī)指數(shù)環(huán)比同比均有所下滑,環(huán)比下降5.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn),同比下降1.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn),以39.1%的景氣度進(jìn)入深度不景氣區(qū)間。而深松機(jī)指數(shù)則環(huán)比提升6.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn),同比下滑0.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
 
  收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)。1月份,三大糧食作物收獲機(jī)指數(shù)的景氣度出現(xiàn)滑坡,環(huán)比下滑2.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn),同比下滑0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn),以43.4%的景氣度繼續(xù)停留在不景氣區(qū)間。其中,自走輪式谷物聯(lián)合收獲機(jī)指數(shù)環(huán)比下滑10.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn),以50.9%的景氣度守住了景氣區(qū)間。比上年同期提升3.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn),意味著該市場(chǎng)在經(jīng)歷了去年大幅度下滑后,今年有望走出低谷。自走履帶式谷物聯(lián)合收割機(jī)(全喂入)指數(shù)環(huán)比、同比雙雙下滑,分別下滑4.6和3.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn),以41.9%的景氣度位于近三年來(lái)同期歷史低位。該市場(chǎng)在經(jīng)歷了去年大幅度下滑的浩劫后,今年市場(chǎng)將往何處去?還需要看下半年的表現(xiàn)。自走式玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng),景氣度環(huán)比上揚(yáng)了5.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn),但同比下滑1.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn),景氣度依然深陷不景氣區(qū)間。
 
  種植機(jī)械市場(chǎng)。1月份,種植機(jī)械市場(chǎng)復(fù)蘇跡象明顯,環(huán)比、同比均出現(xiàn)不同程度的上漲,同比更是出現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)的增長(zhǎng),雖然以48.7%的景氣度位于不景氣區(qū)間,但其強(qiáng)勁的發(fā)展勢(shì)頭還是彰顯出背后復(fù)蘇的動(dòng)向。尤其插秧機(jī)指數(shù)表現(xiàn)搶眼,在經(jīng)歷了去年較大幅度下滑后,今年走出低谷的概率大大提升。播種機(jī)市場(chǎng)在經(jīng)歷了去年大幅度增長(zhǎng)后,今年是走出“兩連增”,還是出現(xiàn)周期性下滑尚待觀察。
 


       2月份AMI走勢(shì)判斷
 
  預(yù)計(jì)2月份,AMI環(huán)比有望增長(zhǎng),同比下滑,景氣度在榮枯線附近徘徊的概率較大。一、二、三級(jí)指數(shù)依然會(huì)表現(xiàn)出冷熱不均的特點(diǎn)。
 
  為何說(shuō)2月份環(huán)比增長(zhǎng),同比下滑,景氣度在榮枯線附近徘徊?
 
  從利好因素看,第一,季節(jié)因素依然是主導(dǎo)AMI走勢(shì)的關(guān)鍵因素。已經(jīng)開(kāi)始的2月份即將進(jìn)入春耕、春播時(shí)節(jié),備耕將成為拉動(dòng)市場(chǎng)的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力,也是判斷景氣度提升的重要依據(jù);第二,從AMI走勢(shì)變化規(guī)律看。自2014年至2023年9年間AMI的表現(xiàn)看,2月份景氣度鮮有不高于1月的?;诖艘?guī)律判斷,2月份AMI走勢(shì)環(huán)比上漲的可能性較大。第三,內(nèi)生因素。1月份景氣度偏低,形成“洼地”,為環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)設(shè)置了較低門(mén)檻。第四,從國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面看,1月份,全國(guó)糧食和物資儲(chǔ)備工作會(huì)議在北京召開(kāi),根據(jù)會(huì)議精神,中儲(chǔ)糧已經(jīng)針對(duì)東北地區(qū)的玉米啟動(dòng)專(zhuān)項(xiàng)增儲(chǔ),在收購(gòu)主體穩(wěn)步增加的過(guò)程中,低迷的玉米價(jià)格已經(jīng)在年前開(kāi)始上漲,小麥價(jià)格也在穩(wěn)步抬頭,這對(duì)農(nóng)民增收是一項(xiàng)利好,為農(nóng)機(jī)的投資增添信心。
 
  從利空因素分析,第一,市場(chǎng)信心不足。作為先行指數(shù)的經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù),表現(xiàn)差強(qiáng)人意。以41.3%的景氣度持續(xù)在低位徘徊,且1月份環(huán)比下滑0.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn),同比狂跌27.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn),說(shuō)明多數(shù)經(jīng)理人對(duì)已經(jīng)開(kāi)始的2月份的市場(chǎng)期許不高;第二,人氣指數(shù)景氣度偏低。作為市場(chǎng)晴雨表的人氣指數(shù),環(huán)比下滑1.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn),同比上漲3.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn),景氣度依然在40%以下,位于深度不景氣區(qū)間;第三,節(jié)日因素。2月份是中國(guó)最重要的傳統(tǒng)節(jié)日-春節(jié),多數(shù)廠家及農(nóng)機(jī)銷(xiāo)售企業(yè)均處于停工歇業(yè)狀態(tài),對(duì)2月份的市場(chǎng)也是一大利空;第四,內(nèi)生因素。去年2月份景氣度高達(dá)67.2%,創(chuàng)下2014年以來(lái)的最高景氣度,這樣的“高地”是形勢(shì)嚴(yán)峻的2024年很難超越的,這也是我們判斷同比下降的主要原因。
 
  利好與利空因素對(duì)沖,決定了2月份AMI走勢(shì),隨著環(huán)比的增長(zhǎng),更加逼近榮枯線,存在擊穿榮枯線進(jìn)入景氣區(qū)間的可能性。而強(qiáng)烈的利空因素又決定了不會(huì)出現(xiàn)過(guò)去兩年較高景氣度的情況。
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