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7月份AMI指數(shù)為47.2%,開啟下半年淡旺季轉(zhuǎn)換新階段
2024-08-05
13:22:04
來源:中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì)信息咨詢部 閱讀量:12781
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導(dǎo)讀:7月份AMI的走勢與去年基本一致,自7月份開始,市場開始有啟動(dòng)跡象,并開啟下半年淡旺季轉(zhuǎn)換的新階段。
【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場行情】中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)布的2024年7月份中國農(nóng)機(jī)市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為47.2%,環(huán)比提升6.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn),同比下降0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。從環(huán)比看,6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)全部呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,其中效益指數(shù)提升幅度最大,比上月同期上漲10.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn);從同比看,6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)中除銷售能力指數(shù)、農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼指數(shù)和人氣指數(shù)略有下降,其余全部呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,其中,庫存指數(shù)提升幅度最大,為1.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。本月經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)挺進(jìn)景氣區(qū)間,其余5個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)繼續(xù)停留在不景氣區(qū)間。
特約分析師張華光認(rèn)為:正如我們上月的預(yù)測,7月份AMI環(huán)比上漲,同比基本與去年持平,景氣度有所回升,以47.2%的景氣度仍滯留于不景氣區(qū)間。AMI環(huán)比在經(jīng)歷了連續(xù)三個(gè)月下滑后,景氣度有所反彈,雖仍處于近三年同期的歷史低位,但降幅收窄,同比基本與去年持平。7月份AMI的走勢與去年基本一致,自7月份開始,市場開始有啟動(dòng)跡象,并開啟下半年淡旺季轉(zhuǎn)換的新階段。
7月份,AMI環(huán)比上漲,同比下滑,景氣度仍位于三年來同期低位,但降幅收窄,呈現(xiàn)出以下幾個(gè)突出特點(diǎn)。
其一,拐點(diǎn)出現(xiàn),環(huán)比上揚(yáng)。7月份,AMI環(huán)比上漲6.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn),以47.2%的較高景氣度終結(jié)了環(huán)比“三連跌”下行走勢,開啟了增長模式。但同比依然下滑0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn),雖降幅有所收窄,但仍然低于去年同期,說明今年的市場仍沒有達(dá)到去年的高度。
其二,效益大幅增長,運(yùn)行質(zhì)量提升。7月份,效益指數(shù)環(huán)比提升10.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn),同比提升1.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn),與2022年持平,以45.3%的景氣度繼續(xù)停留在不景氣區(qū)間,環(huán)比上升超過兩位數(shù)。環(huán)比較大幅度攀升主要得益于上月跌至低點(diǎn)后形成的“洼地”;同比提升意味著企業(yè)運(yùn)行質(zhì)量出現(xiàn)好轉(zhuǎn),尤其是國四機(jī)型銷售占比出現(xiàn)較大提升。
其三,經(jīng)理人信心恢復(fù),照亮下月市場。人氣指數(shù)環(huán)比提升7.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn),意味著市場交易趨于活躍,為經(jīng)理人注入強(qiáng)大信心。經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)以8.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)的增幅挺進(jìn)景氣區(qū)間,照亮了下月的市場。下半年,
收獲機(jī)械、耕整地機(jī)械、田間管理機(jī)械、收獲后處理機(jī)械、
烘干設(shè)備等市場相繼進(jìn)入銷售旺季,成為市場的強(qiáng)大支撐。
其四,二級(jí)指數(shù)冰火同爐,環(huán)比多增少降。從監(jiān)測的5個(gè)二級(jí)指數(shù)看,7月份,環(huán)比呈現(xiàn)“3上2下”走勢特點(diǎn)。其中,田間管理機(jī)械和
收割機(jī)指數(shù)環(huán)比均出現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)增幅,并挺進(jìn)景氣區(qū)間。與之相反,種植機(jī)械和耕整地機(jī)械進(jìn)入銷售淡季,環(huán)比出現(xiàn)不同程度的下滑。從同比看,收割機(jī)和種植機(jī)械指數(shù)同比呈現(xiàn)不同程度的上升,尤其是收割機(jī)指數(shù),成為本月唯一環(huán)比同比均上漲的指數(shù),且景氣度躍居景氣區(qū)間,為今年的市場帶來希望。
7月份,所監(jiān)測的10個(gè)三級(jí)指數(shù)的表現(xiàn)冷熱不均。環(huán)比:“7上3下”。其中,大型拖拉機(jī)、免耕播種機(jī)、旋耕機(jī)指數(shù)有所下滑外,其它全部上漲。同比:“4升6降”。其中,插秧機(jī)、遙控飛行噴霧機(jī)、自走履帶式以及輪式谷物聯(lián)合收割機(jī)指數(shù)出現(xiàn)不同程度的上漲,大中拖、深松機(jī)、旋耕機(jī)、免耕播種機(jī)、玉米收獲機(jī)指數(shù)出現(xiàn)不同程度的下滑。從細(xì)分市場來看,三大糧食作物收獲機(jī)市場表現(xiàn)均較為亮眼。
8月份,AMI環(huán)比、同比或出現(xiàn)不同程度的增長,挺進(jìn)景氣區(qū)間的概率較大。多數(shù)一、二、三級(jí)指數(shù)環(huán)比或出現(xiàn)小幅攀升。8月份正值農(nóng)機(jī)市場進(jìn)入旺季,成為月度景氣度的主要支撐。今年的市場在經(jīng)歷了去年大幅度的滑坡后,將進(jìn)入到一個(gè)漸進(jìn)式的“修復(fù)”階段,預(yù)計(jì)這種趨勢或延續(xù)到今年全年或明年。從AMI走勢規(guī)律看,8月份環(huán)比多數(shù)上漲,且經(jīng)理人信心有所恢復(fù),市場信心回升,預(yù)示著8月份市場環(huán)比攀升的概率較大。
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